High predicted cardiac event risk in youth with obesity and type 2 diabetes: a pooled cohort analysis
Authors' conclusion
Y-T2D had an estimated 4.5- and 1.4-times higher risk for predicted CVD events compared to Lean and OW/OB peers, respectively. Lipoprotein and inflammatory risk-enhancing factors may help stratify and guide primary prevention strategies in high-risk AYA.
Study context
- Population
- Adolescents and young adults aged 10–25 years
- Participants
- 1,547 adolescents
- Exposure
- Youth-onset T2D vs OW/OB and Lean peers
- Y-T2Dn = 117
- OW/OBn = 803
- Leann = 627reference
- Outcome
- i3C combined-risk z-score and estimated HR for predicted 35-year adult CVD events
Methodological detailsANCOVA models adjusted for diagnosis group, race, study center, Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons
- ANCOVA models adjusted for diagnosis group, race, study center
- Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
| Group | Value | Estimated HR for predicted cardiovascular disease (CVD) events (95% CI 3.65-4.86) | Estimated HR for predicted CVD events (95% CI 2.85-3.22) | Estimated HR for predicted CVD events (95% CI 0.74-1.17) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y-T2D | mean 1.23 (95% CI 1.10–1.36) | 4.25 | ||
| OW/OB | mean 0.84 (95% CI 0.80–0.88) | 3.04 | ||
| Lean | mean −0.11 (95% CI −0.15–-0.06) | 0.95 |
Value
Y-T2Dmean 1.23 (95% CI 1.10–1.36)
OW/OBmean 0.84 (95% CI 0.80–0.88)
Leanmean −0.11 (95% CI −0.15–-0.06)
Estimated HR for predicted cardiovascular disease (CVD) events (95% CI 3.65-4.86)
Y-T2D4.25
OW/OB— not stated in the abstract
Lean— not stated in the abstract
Estimated HR for predicted CVD events (95% CI 2.85-3.22)
Y-T2D— not stated in the abstract
OW/OB3.04
Lean— not stated in the abstract
Estimated HR for predicted CVD events (95% CI 0.74-1.17)
Y-T2D— not stated in the abstract
OW/OB— not stated in the abstract
Lean0.95
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Association of risk-enhancing factors with i3C estimated HR
- HR increase per 10 mg/dL increase in apolipoprotein B (ApoB)
- 0.3
- HR increase per 100 nmol/L increase in LDL-P
- 0.1
- HR increase per 2 mg/L increase in high sensitivity C reactive protein (hsCRP)
- 0.16
- All P < 0.001
Original publication
High predicted cardiac event risk in youth with obesity and type 2 diabetes: a pooled cohort analysis. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 24 October 2025. doi:10.
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