GLP ‐1 Receptor Agonists and Risk of Skin Cancer in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A Target Trial Emulation
Authors' conclusion
GLP-1RA therapy was not associated with an increased risk of melanoma. A borderline increase in NMSC risk was observed compared with SGLT2is but was not evident after NCO calibration.
Study context
- Population
- Adults with T2D initiating GLP-1 RA, SGLT2i or DPP-4i; TriNetX electronic health records (2014–2025)235,797 and 153,873 matched pairs
- Comparison
- GLP-1 RA initiation vs SGLT2i or DPP-4i initiation
- Outcome
- Incident melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC)
- Follow-up
- Over 3 years
Methodological detailspropensity score matching, electronic health records, negative control outcome calibration, lag-period analysis
- Propensity score matching
- Electronic health records
- Negative control outcome calibration
- Lag-period analysis
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
mean follow-up 1.8 to 2.2 years
Hazard ratio (95% CI)
GLP-1RAvs SGLT2imelanoma
1.04(0.93–1.17)
GLP-1RAvs DPP4imelanoma
1.09(0.95–1.25)
GLP-1RAvs SGLT2iNMSC; borderline increase
1.06(1.00–1.11)
GLP-1RAvs DPP4iNMSC
1.03(0.97–1.09)
Further findings
Sensitivity analyses (negative control outcome (NCO) calibration, lag period, obesity restriction)
- Findings generally consistent across sensitivity analyses; Non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) association attenuated after NCO calibration
Original publication
GLP ‐1 Receptor Agonists and Risk of Skin Cancer in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A Target Trial Emulation. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 28 July 2026. doi:10.
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