Exploring time-varying cardiovascular effects of GLP-1 receptor agonists: A multi-state network meta-analysis of cardiovascular outcome trials
Pooled result · MACE (conventional meta-analysis)Result — go to the resultHazard ratio 0.856 95% CI 0.810–0.905Authors' conclusion
Conventional synthesis supported a class-level MACE reduction. Multi-state estimates suggested possible time-varying patterns but remained imprecise and assumption-dependent. These data did not establish a reliable efficacy hierarchy or empirically distinguish event prevention from post-event survival effects.
Study context
- Population
- Participants in placebo-controlled cardiovascular outcome trials of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs), eight GLP-1 RA regimensparticipants in ten placebo-controlled cardiovascular outcome trials
- Participants
- 87,334 participants
- Comparison
- GLP-1 RA regimens vs placebo
- Outcome
- MACE (conventional meta-analysis)
Methodological detailsthree-state model, conventional random-effects meta-analysis as comparator
- Three-state model
- Conventional random-effects meta-analysis as comparator
Pooled result
As reported in the abstract
Hazard ratio
0.856
95% CI 0.810–0.905
GLP-1 RAsvs placebo
HR 0.856 (95% CI 0.810–0.905)
Further pooled results
Modelled transition HRs for first non-fatal major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) · 24 months
- Transition HRs ranged from
- 0.51 to 1.38
- All 95% credible intervals included 1
Semaglutide posterior median curves
- Suggested larger early reductions that attenuated over time
Mortality attribution and sensitivity analyses
- Mortality attribution depended on structural assumptions
- Several sensitivity analyses showed incomplete convergence
Original publication
Exploring time-varying cardiovascular effects of GLP-1 receptor agonists: A multi-state network meta-analysis of cardiovascular outcome trials. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. Published 6 November 2026. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →