Gestational diabetes & diabetes in pregnancy
Development and validation of a risk prediction model for preterm birth in women with gestational diabetes mellitus
Authors' conclusion
This study presents a novel, validated risk model for preterm birth in pregnant women with GDM, providing an individualized risk estimation using clinical risk factors in the third trimester of pregnancy.
Study context
- Population
- Women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) (75-g OGTT at 24–28 gestational weeks) who gave birth at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China, Nov 2017–Jul 2021
- Participants
- 1,879 women
- Exposure
- Development set vs Validation set
- Development setn = 1,346
- Validation setn = 533
- Outcome
- Preterm birth (gestational age at birth <37 weeks); model discrimination and calibration
Methodological detailsprediction model development and validation, stepwise logistic regression, single-centre, Nomogram and web calculator established based on the model
- Prediction model development and validation
- Stepwise logistic regression
- Single-centre
- Nomogram and web calculator established based on the model
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination of prediction model (AUC)
| Group | AUC |
|---|---|
| Development set | 0.722 |
| Validation set | 0.632 |
AUC
Development set0.722
Validation set0.632
- Incidence of preterm birth
- 9.4%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Original publication
Development and validation of a risk prediction model for preterm birth in women with gestational diabetes mellitus. Clin Endocrinol (Oxf). Published 11 March 2024. doi:10.
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