Development and validation of a prediction model for falls among older people using community-based data
Authors' conclusion
Using our tool, an individual's risk of falls over the course of a year could be predicted with acceptable sensitivity and specificity. We recommend a cutoff value of 22% for use in identifying high-risk populations. The tool may benefit healthcare workers in screening community-dwelling older adults with various levels of risk for falls and support physicians in planning preventative and follow-up care.
Study context
- Population
- Community-dwelling older adults who participated in community-based physical exercise groups7,726 test datasets
- Participants
- 2,381 adults
- Outcome
- Falls
- Follow-up
- 1 year
Methodological detailsretrospective, multilevel logistic regression
- Retrospective
- Multilevel logistic regression
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Falls within 1 year
| Test or model | Sensitivity | Specificity | Best cutoff value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our tool | 68.4% | 53.8% | 22% |
Our tool
Sensitivity68.4%
Specificity53.8%
Best cutoff value22%
Original publication
Development and validation of a prediction model for falls among older people using community-based data. Osteoporos Int. Published 15 June 2024. doi:10.
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