Cumulative exposure to the estimated glucose disposal rate and incident stroke in individuals with cardiovascular–kidney–metabolic syndrome stages 0–4: 6-year longitudinal evidence from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS)
Authors' conclusion
Cumulative eGDR is inversely associated with stroke risk across all CKM syndrome stages (0-4). This observation suggests that prolonged eGDR surveillance may be associated with improved risk stratification in this population.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome stages 0–4, China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS); Estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) calculated for 2012 and 2015336 incident strokes
- Participants
- 5,248 individuals
- Exposure
- eGDR change patterns vs persistent low pattern; cumulative eGDR per 1-unit increase
- Outcome
- Incident stroke
- Follow-up
- 2015-2018
Methodological detailslongitudinal, K-means clustering of eGDR change patterns, multivariable logistic regression, restricted cubic spline
- Longitudinal
- K-means clustering of eGDR change patterns
- Multivariable logistic regression
- Restricted cubic spline
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Stroke risk by eGDR change pattern (fully adjusted) · 2015-2018
Each group vs class 2Odds ratio (95% CI)
Moderate-high stable
0.43(0.31–0.58)
Stable high
0.29(0.19–0.43)
Rapid decrease
0.66(0.47–0.91)
- Cumulative eGDR, per 1-unit increase: OR for stroke (5% reduction in odds)
- OR 0.95, 0.93-0.96
- Restricted cubic spline: linear inverse relationship between cumulative eGDR and stroke risk
- P < 0.001; P for nonlinearity = 0.259
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Original publication
Cumulative exposure to the estimated glucose disposal rate and incident stroke in individuals with cardiovascular–kidney–metabolic syndrome stages 0–4: 6-year longitudinal evidence from CHARLS. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 8 February 2026. doi:10.
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