Lipids & metabolic liver disease
Cumulative exposure and dynamic trajectories of the C-reactive protein-triglyceride-glucose index (CTI) versus the cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, and glucose index (CHG) for incident hypertension prediction: a national cohort study
Authors' conclusion
Both indices were independently associated with incident hypertension, and cuCTI showed better long-term predictive performance than cuCHG.
Study context
- Population
- Participants of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS)
- Participants
- 2,673 participants
- Exposure
- Cumulative CTI vs cumulative CHG for incident hypertension prediction
- Outcome
- Incident hypertension
- Follow-up
- Median 9 years
Methodological detailsnationwide longitudinal cohort (CHARLS), multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, group-based trajectory modeling
- Nationwide longitudinal cohort (CHARLS)
- Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models
- Group-based trajectory modeling
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Incident hypertension, highest vs lowest quartile (fully adjusted)
Hazard ratio (95% CI)
cuCTI highest quartile
2.16(1.63–2.87)
cuCHG highest quartile
1.63(1.24–2.15)
- Developed hypertension
- 408 of 2673 (15.3%)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
NRI and IDI · 7 and 9 years
NRI 7 years
NRI 9 years
IDI 7 years
IDI 9 years
- Time-dependent ROC: cuCTI vs cuCHG · median 9 years · superior predictive accuracy with cuCTI
- DeLong P = 0.025
- Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI): all P < 0.05
C-index of fully adjusted model after adding index · 7 and 9 years
- Adding cuCTI, 7 years: C-index 0.572 to 0.609
- P = 0.014
- Adding cuCTI, 9 years: C-index 0.582 to 0.618
- P = 0.003
- Adding cuCHG, 7 years: C-index 0.590
- P = 0.110
- Adding cuCHG, 9 years: C-index 0.597
- P = 0.094
Comparison with triglyceride-glucose (TyG); subgroup and sensitivity analyses
- Comparison with TyG suggested superior predictive performance of cuCTI
- Subgroup and sensitivity analyses showed consistent results
Original publication
Cumulative exposure and dynamic trajectories of the C-reactive protein-triglyceride-glucose index (CTI) versus the cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, and glucose index (CHG) for incident hypertension prediction: a national cohort study. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 12 April 2026. doi:10.
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