Lipids & metabolic liver disease
Comprehensive evaluation of triglyceride glucose index–a body shape index (Triglyceride-Glucose (TyG)–A Body Shape Index (ABSI)) for incident peripheral artery disease: data-driven phenotyping and machine learning-based risk prediction in the UK Biobank
Main finding · Incident PADResult — go to the resultFully-adjusted HR 1.22 95% CI 1.17–1.27Authors' conclusion
TyG-ABSI is a robust, independent predictor of long-term PAD risk. Data-driven phenotyping and interpretable machine learning facilitate more precise risk stratification. Logistic regression offers optimal performance and interpretability, holding potential clinical utility for individualized PAD risk prediction.
Study context
- Population
- Adults from the UK Biobank; external validation in NHANES
- Participants
- 390,274 adults
- Exposure
- TyG-ABSI quartiles; per 1-SD increase
- Outcome
- Incident peripheral artery disease (PAD)
Methodological detailsmultivariable-adjusted Cox regression, Fine-Gray competing risk models, propensity score matching, external validation in NHANES, consensus k-means clustering, machine learning risk prediction
- Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression
- Fine-Gray competing risk models
- Propensity score matching
- External validation in NHANES
- Consensus k-means clustering
- Machine learning risk prediction
Main finding
Incident PAD · 15 years
Fully-adjusted HR
1.22
95% CI 1.17–1.27
By group
TyG-ABSI per 1-SD increase
fully-adjusted HR 1.22 (95% CI 1.17–1.27)
Per 1-SD increase, as printed
As reported in the abstract
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | HR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| PAD risk by metabolic cluster (4 subgroups)Insulin resistance/glucose dysfunction clustervs Healthy phenotype | 7.48 (6.82–8.21) | |
| 0.10.31310Hazard ratio (log scale) |
PAD prediction: logistic regression (19 predictors)
- Validation AUC, logistic regression
- 0.788 (95% CI 0.778-0.798)
- Superior generalizability vs complex ensemble methods
- Leading SHAP predictors: TyG-ABSI, age, neutrophil count
Original publication
Comprehensive evaluation of triglyceride glucose index–a body shape index (TyG–ABSI) for incident peripheral artery disease: data-driven phenotyping and machine learning-based risk prediction in the UK Biobank. Cardiovasc Diabetol. Published 9 March 2026. doi:10.
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