Baseline Fasting Glucose Level, Age, Sex, and Body Mass Index and the Development of Diabetes in US Adults
Authors' conclusion
This retrospective cohort study of 44 992 individuals suggests that FPG level, age, BMI, and male sex were all associated with development of diabetes, with significant interaction between these variables. These data contribute to understanding the clinical course of diabetes and highlight the substantial individual variation in diabetes risk according to commonly measured clinical variables. The findings facilitate lifestyle and pharmacologic interventions to treat those at highest risk of diabetes to reduce future morbidity and mortality. Further work is needed to validate this risk categorization tool for different populations.
Study context
- Population
- Adults in Olmsted County, Minnesota, with at least 2 fasting plasma glucose (FPG) measurements from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2017; diabetes on or before first FPG excluded; mean (SD) age 43.7 (11.8) years, 57.8% women, mean (SD) body mass index (BMI) 28.9 (6.6)
- Participants
- 44,992 adults
- Exposure
- Baseline FPG categories, with BMI, age and sex as covariates
- Outcome
- Incident diabetes (FPG >125 mg/dL); cumulative probability of freedom from diabetes (Kaplan-Meier) and partial hazard ratios (HRs) (multivariable Cox)
Methodological detailscommunity-based, Rochester Epidemiology Project
- Community-based
- Rochester Epidemiology Project
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
- Developed diabetes
- 3879 (8.6%)
- Kaplan-Meier 10-year cumulative risk of incident diabetes
- 12.8% (95% CI, 12.4%-13.2%)
- FPG <70 mg/dL, HR
- 3.49 (95% CI, 2.19-5.57)
- FPG 120-125 mg/dL, HR
- 12.47 (10.84-14.34)
- Male sex, HR
- 1.31 (95% CI, 1.22-1.40)
- Age ≥60 years, HR
- 1.97 (95% CI, 1.71-2.28)
- BMI <18.5, HR
- 2.42 (95% CI, 1.77-3.29)
- BMI ≥40, HR
- 4.03 (95% CI, 3.56-4.56)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Additive association of variables (particularly FPG and BMI): estimated 10-year diabetes risk, woman aged 55 to 59 years
- BMI 18.5 to 24.9, FPG 95 to 99 mg/dL
- 7.0%
- BMI 30.0 to 34.9, FPG 95 to 99 mg/dL
- 13.0%
- BMI 30.0 to 34.9, FPG 105 to 109 mg/dL
- 28.0%
- Significant additive association of variables
- Nomogram generated for one of four 10-year risk categories
Original publication
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →