A Risk Assessment Tool for Predicting Fragility Fractures in People with HIV: Derivation and Internal Validation of the FRESIA Model
Authors' conclusion
Our prediction model demonstrated accuracy in predicting the long-term risk of fragility fractures.
Study context
- Population
- People with HIV aged ≥30 years from the Spanish HIV/AIDS research network cohort
- Participants
- 11,899 people
- Comparison
- FRESIA model vs FRAX tool
- Outcome
- Time to first fragility fracture (nontraumatic or after a casual fall) at major osteoporotic sites (hip, clinical spine, forearm, proximal humerus)
- Follow-up
- 5- and 10-year risk
Methodological detailscohort-based, competing risk of death accounted for, 12 candidate predictors
- Cohort-based
- Competing risk of death accounted for
- 12 candidate predictors
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Prediction of fragility fracture risk · 5 and 10 years
| Test or model | AUC |
|---|---|
| FRESIA model | 0.768 (95% CI 0.722 to 0.814) |
FRESIA model
AUC0.768 (95% CI 0.722 to 0.814)
- Better discrimination and calibration than FRAX; improved classification of individuals with fragility fractures vs FRAX
- over 35%
Further findings
Incidence rate of fragility fractures
- Incidence rate per 1000 person-years
- 4.34 (95% CI 3.61 to 5.22)
Significant predictors in final model
- Age, CKD and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were significant predictors
Original publication
A Risk Assessment Tool for Predicting Fragility Fractures in People with HIV: Derivation and Internal Validation of the FRESIA Model. J Bone Miner Res. Published 23 August 2023. doi:10.
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