A Predictive Model for Graves’ Disease Recurrence After Antithyroid Drug Therapy: A Retrospective Multicenter Cohort Study
Authors' conclusion
This study introduced a practical model that can be used during the initial therapeutic decision-making process. It utilizes easily accessible baseline clinical data to predict the likelihood of GD recurrence after 1 year of ATD therapy. Further research is needed to identify other factors affecting risk of recurrence and develop more precise predictive models.
Study context
- Population
- Patients with Graves' disease (GD) treated with antithyroid drug (ATDs) at 3 U.S. academic centers142 in model
- Participants
- 523 patients
- Outcome
- GD recurrence after ATD discontinuation
- Follow-up
- Within 1 year
Methodological detailsmulticentre, electronic health records-based
- Multicentre
- Electronic health records-based
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Age, per additional decade: OR (95% CI 1.03-1.66), P = .0258
1.31
Baseline free thyroxine (FT4), per 2.0 ng/dL rise: OR (95% CI 1.08-2.50), P = .0192
1.65
Model AUC, derivation dataset
0.69
Model AUC, cross-validation
0.65
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
GD recurrence within 1 year
- Recurrence, of 211 who discontinued
- 79 (37.44%)
ATD discontinuation
- Discontinued treatment
- 211 (40.34%)
- Follow-up >12 months after stopping ATD (model cohort)
- 142 (67.29%)
Original publication
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →