A Type 2 Diabetes Policy Model That Predicts Remaining Life Expectancy, Quality‐Adjusted Life Expectancy and Healthcare Costs for Use in Economic Evaluation, Incorporating Equity Concerns
Authors' conclusion
We developed a T2DM policy model incorporating socio-economic deprivation, providing estimates of life expectancy, QALYs and healthcare costs to inform health technology assessment.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals newly diagnosed with T2D between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2020, Scottish Diabetes Research Network (SDRN) national diabetes cohort, Scotland; mean age at diagnosis 63 years, 56% male, 24% in most deprived areas
- Participants
- 269,759 individuals
- Outcome
- Model predictions for a man diagnosed at age 50 in the most deprived quintile, other covariates at average values
Methodological detailsGompertz regression stratified by sex and Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), repeated measure logistic and linear regression, parameterised Kaplan-Meier sample-average estimator
- Gompertz regression stratified by sex and SIMD
- Repeated measure logistic and linear regression
- Parameterised Kaplan-Meier sample-average estimator
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Remaining life expectancy
26.7 years
Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)
21.1
Healthcare costs (undiscounted)
£273 k
ICER for hypothetical intervention reducing HbA1c by 1%
£7832 per QALY
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Follow-up and mortality
- Total follow-up
- 2 090 108 patient-years
- Median follow-up per patient
- 7 years
- Died during follow-up
- Approximately one in four patients
- Most common T2D-related complications were coronary heart disease and HF
Original publication
A Type 2 Diabetes Policy Model That Predicts Remaining Life Expectancy, Quality‐Adjusted Life Expectancy and Healthcare Costs for Use in Economic Evaluation, Incorporating Equity Concerns. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 19 March 2026. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →