Time-dependent association between progression of arterial stiffness and risk of incident chronic kidney disease: a cohort study in China
Main finding · Incident CKD by progression of baPWVResult — go to the resultLower risk of CKD 45% 95% CI 34–55Authors' conclusion
In this cohort study, improvement in arterial stiffness, as indicated by a consistently low or decreased baPWV, might be associated with a lower risk of CKD. These findings underscore the potential importance of coordinated actions targeting cardiovascular health to improve kidney health in the general population.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals in the Kailuan Study, China, free of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and CVD at baseline
- Participants
- 10,567 individuals
- Exposure
- Progression of arterial stiffness quintiles and brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) trajectories
- Outcome
- Incident CKD: eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m² and/or albuminuria
- Follow-up
- Mean 5.32 years
Methodological detailstime-dependent Cox models, repeated baPWV measurements
- Time-dependent Cox models
- Repeated baPWV measurements
Main finding
Incident CKD by progression of baPWV
Lower risk of CKD
45%
95% CI 34–55
As reported in the abstract
- Participants who developed CKD
- 1108
- Lower quintiles of baseline baPWV and baPWV progression associated with lower CKD risk, dose-dependent
- P for trend < 0.001
- Higher CKD risk per SD increment in baPWV progression
- 19%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Lower risk of incident CKD (95% CI) |
|---|---|
| Incident CKD by baPWV trajectory (reference: consistently high baPWV ≥1400 cm/s)Maintained low baPWV (<1400 cm/s) vs Consistently high baPWV (≥1400 cm/s) · lower with maintained low | 46% (33–57) |
| Incident CKD by baPWV trajectory (reference: consistently high baPWV ≥1400 cm/s)Improved from high to low baPWV vs Consistently high baPWV (≥1400 cm/s) · lower with improved | 32% (12–48) |
Discrimination of CKD risk model with added progression of arterial stiffness
- Optimism-adjusted C statistic, from 0.690 to 0.709
- P < 0.001
Original publication
Time-dependent association between progression of arterial stiffness and risk of incident chronic kidney disease: a cohort study in China. Diabetologia. Published 22 November 2025. doi:10.
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