The cumulative triglyceride-glucose-frailty index and risk of heart disease and stroke in early-stage cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome
Authors' conclusion
cumTyGFI and TyGFI trajectories improved risk stratification for heart disease and stroke in early-stage CKM syndrome.
Study context
- Population
- Adults aged ≥45 years with cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome stages 0–3, CHARLS
- Participants
- 4,341 adults
- Exposure
- Cumulative TyGFI and TyGFI trajectory classes
- Outcome
- Incident heart disease and stroke
- Follow-up
- 2018
Methodological detailsCHARLS cohort, multivariable logistic regression, k-means trajectory clustering
- CHARLS cohort
- Multivariable logistic regression
- K-means trajectory clustering
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Heart disease events
593
Stroke events
293
Heart disease per 1-unit increase in Cumulative TyGFI (cumTyGFI), OR
1.71
Stroke per 1-unit increase in cumTyGFI, OR
1.81
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
High-rising TyGFI trajectory class
- Highest odds of heart disease, OR
- 2.54
- Highest odds of stroke, OR
- 3.12
Incremental prediction from adding cumTyGFI (heart disease/stroke)
- NRI
- 0.4853/0.5731
- IDI
- 0.0345/0.0285
- P
- all P < 0.001
SHAP contributors
- SHAP identified cumTyGFI, BMI, and age as leading contributors
Original publication
The cumulative triglyceride-glucose-frailty index and risk of heart disease and stroke in early-stage cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. Published 26 June 2026. doi:10.
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