Temporal changes and genetic susceptibility to type 2 diabetes (1984–2019; HUNT): a longitudinal, population-based study
Authors' conclusion
Our findings suggest an increasing gap in diabetes prevalence between the most and least genetically susceptible. This suggests that people with a high genetic susceptibility to type 2 diabetes could be especially affected by a diabetogenic environment and highlights the need for public health measures.
Study context
- Population
- Participants aged 20–79 years in the HUNT study, 1984–2019; 53.0% female198,312 observations
- Participants
- 86,194 participants
- Exposure
- Top vs bottom decile of T2D polygenic score over time
- Outcome
- Diabetes prevalence (self-report) by polygenic score category over time
- Follow-up
- Mid-1980s to late 2010s
Methodological detailsfour HUNT surveys 1984–2019, generalised estimating equations, polygenic score >1 100 000 variants
- Four HUNT surveys 1984–2019
- Generalised estimating equations
- Polygenic score >1 100 000 variants
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Increase in diabetes prevalence
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Hyperglycaemia incl. laboratory measurements
- Findings similar when laboratory measurements added
Diabetes incidence, aged 20-39 years, top decile
- Suggested increasing incidence
Diabetes survival · 1996-2006 to 2007-17
- Improved diabetes survival
Original publication
Temporal changes and genetic susceptibility to type 2 diabetes (1984–2019; HUNT): a longitudinal, population-based study. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. Published 28 January 2026. doi:10.
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