Survival Prognostication in Patients with Differentiated Thyroid Cancer and Distant Metastases: A SEER Population-Based Study
Authors' conclusion
This study identifies distinct prognostic groups for patients with differentiated thyroid cancer with distant metastases and highlights the importance of patient age, lung metastases, and tumor size for determining both disease-specific and overall survival.
Study context
- Population
- Adults with DTC and distant metastases, U.S. SEER-17 cancer registry (2010–2019)median follow-up 62 months
- Participants
- 2,411 adults
- Outcome
- Prognostic groups for DSS and OS; role of patient and tumor characteristics in survival
Methodological detailspopulation-based, SEER-17 registry, Cox proportional hazards regression, survival trees, random survival forest
- Population-based
- SEER-17 registry
- Cox proportional hazards regression
- Survival trees
- Random survival forest
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Prognostic groups (survival tree analyses) · 5-year
- Three disease-specific survival (DSS) prognostic groups, 5-year survival
- 92%, 64%, and 41%; p < 0.001
- Four overall survival (OS) prognostic groups, 5-year survival
- 96%, 84%, 57%, and 31%; p < 0.001
- First split for DSS and OS by age at diagnosis
- ≤57 years vs. ≥58 years
- Subsequent splits: presence/absence of lung metastases, tumor size, patient age
- ≤4 cm vs. >4 cm
- Cox model: survival associated with patient age
- p < 0.001
- Cox model: survival associated with tumor size
- p < 0.01
- Cox model: survival associated with site of distant metastasis
- p < 0.05
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Cohort characteristics
- Papillary thyroid cancer
- 86.0%
- Lung metastases
- 33.7%
- Bone metastases
- 18.9%
Mortality during study period
- Died from thyroid cancer
- 558 (23.1%)
- Died from all causes
- 757 (31.4%)
Original publication
Survival Prognostication in Patients with Differentiated Thyroid Cancer and Distant Metastases: A SEER Population-Based Study. Thyroid. Published 1 July 2024. doi:10.
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