Risk of new‐onset diabetes and efficacy of pharmacological weight loss therapy
Authors' conclusion
The developed clinical risk model effectively predicts new-onset diabetes, with potential implications for personalized patient care and therapeutic decision making.
Study context
- Population
- Patients without T2D at baseline from two TIMI clinical trials of stable cardiovascular patients
- Participants
- 21,143 patients2 TIMI trials
- Comparison
- Lorcaserin benefit across predicted risk groups
- Outcome
- New-onset diabetes
- Follow-up
- Median 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.7) years
Methodological detailsderivation (≈2/3) and validation (≈1/3) cohorts, multivariable Cox regression
- Derivation (≈2/3) and validation (≈1/3) cohorts
- Multivariable Cox regression
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination of the clinical risk model for new-onset diabetes (Harrell's C-index)
Derivation cohort
0.802
Harrell's C-index · 95% CI 0.788–0.817
Validation cohort
0.807
Harrell's C-index · 95% CI 0.788–0.826
- Final model predictors: HbA1c, fasting glucose, age, BMI, TG/HDL
- five
- Calibration: 2.5-year AUC
- 81.2 [79.1-83.5]
Further findings
New-onset diabetes incidence · median follow-up 2.3 (1.8-2.7) years
- New-onset diabetes
- 1013 patients (7.7%)
Lorcaserin effect on new-onset diabetes by risk group
- Sixfold gradient in absolute risk reduction from lowest to highest risk group
- P = 0.027
- HRs comparable across risk groups
Original publication
Risk of new‐onset diabetes and efficacy of pharmacological weight loss therapy. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 26 July 2024. doi:10.
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