Proteomic Signatures of 3-Year Progression From Impaired Fasting Glucose to Diabetes: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study
Authors' conclusion
We identified proteins associated with 3-year IFG progression, with improvements in diabetes risk stratification.
Study context
- Population
- ARIC participants with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) (FG 100–125 mg/dL without diabetes), visit 2 (1990–1992) to visit 3 (1993–1995); mean age 57 years, 52% female, 28% Black
- Participants
- 3,786 participants
- Exposure
- Associations of 4,955 plasma proteins with progression from IFG to diabetes
- Outcome
- Progression from IFG to diabetes (diagnosis, medication, or FG ≥126 mg/dL)
- Follow-up
- ∼3 years
Methodological detailsproteomic analysis, Bonferroni correction, 80% training and 20% internal validation subsamples, external validation in Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)
- Proteomic analysis
- Bonferroni correction
- 80% training and 20% internal validation subsamples
- External validation in MESA
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Proteins associated with ∼3-year progression to diabetes
- Proteins associated with progression to diabetes
- Six
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
3-year cumulative incidence of diabetes
- Cumulative incidence of diabetes
- 6%
Pathways
- Altered carbohydrate metabolism and glycolysis were key pathways
Prediction improvement adding six proteins to covariates
- Optimism-corrected AUC
- 0.81
- ΔAUC
- 0.03, P = 0.005
- Net reclassification, training
- 12.2%
- Net reclassification, internal validation
- 12.0%
- Predicted diabetes risk quintiles span
- <1% to ∼20%
Validation in MESA
- Proteins validated in MESA (P < 0.008)
- 2
Original publication
Proteomic Signatures of 3-Year Progression From Impaired Fasting Glucose to Diabetes: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. Diabetes Care. Published 25 June 2026. doi:10.
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