Physical activity substitution: An overlooked constraint on energy expenditure during exercise and physical activity interventions

Diabetes Obes MetabPublished Mathematical modelling study

Authors' conclusion

Physical activity substitution has the potential to erode the increase in daily energy expenditure during prescribed exercise interventions, and to introduce marked heterogeneity in the treatment response (change in energy expenditure). Successful mitigation of physical activity substitution could potentially increase the effectiveness of physical activity interventions.

Study context

Population
Patients aged 63 ± 6 years recruited in the south-west of England
Participants
242 patients
Comparison
LOW vs HIGH prescribed exercise scenarios, accounting for physical activity substitution vs additive models
Outcome
Increase in net daily energy expenditure after subtraction of pre-existing physical activity at the time of the modelled prescribed exercise (accounting for substitution)
Methodological detailstwo modelled prescribed exercise scenarios (LOW and HIGH)
  • Two modelled prescribed exercise scenarios (LOW and HIGH)

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Increase in daily energy expenditure after accounting for substitution, as % of potential increase under additive models

Further findings

Heterogeneity in predicted change in daily energy expenditure

Substitution introduced considerable heterogeneity, most evident in the LOW scenario

Original publication

Physical activity substitution: An overlooked constraint on energy expenditure during exercise and physical activity interventions. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 3 September 2025. doi:10.1111/dom.70079

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