Overdiagnosis of Papillary Thyroid Cancer
An erratum to this article was published (JAMA Netw Open, 1 Apr 2026 ↗)
Authors' conclusion
This study found that thyroid cancer overdiagnosis in the US remains substantial, even after accounting for possible increases in true incidence. This finding suggests an opportunity to reduce unnecessary thyroid ultrasonography referrals, particularly for nonpalpable nodules, and to reduce unnecessary diagnoses and treatment-related harms without increasing mortality.
Study context
- Population
- All adults aged ≥18 years in the US, 1991–2019
- Comparison
- Women vs men; reduced vs current thyroid US use for nonpalpable nodules
- Outcome
- Model-estimated relative and absolute rates of PTC overdiagnosis, stratified by sex
- Follow-up
- 1991–2019
Methodological detailsvalidated microsimulation model (Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Microsimulation Model), Data analysis June 2024 to August 2025
- Validated microsimulation model (Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Microsimulation Model)
- Data analysis June 2024 to August 2025
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
PTC overdiagnosis
| Group | Value | Absolute rate of overdiagnosis | Overdiagnosed over 28 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Women | 75%-95% | 13-17 per 100 000 individuals | 443 212 to 573 705 |
| Men | 63%-90% | 3-5 per 100 000 individuals | 107 804 to 154 504 |
Value
Women75%-95%
Men63%-90%
Absolute rate of overdiagnosis
Women13-17 per 100 000 individuals
Men3-5 per 100 000 individuals
Overdiagnosed over 28 years
Women443 212 to 573 705
Men107 804 to 154 504
- Proportion of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) cases overdiagnosed (overall)
- 72% to 94%
Further findings
PTC incidence if thyroid US for nonpalpable nodules reduced · 2019
- 33% reduction in US use: PTC incidence decrease
- 17% (18 to 15 per 100 000 individuals)
- 67% reduction in US use: PTC incidence decrease
- 41% (18 to 11 per 100 000 individuals)
- Change in overall mortality
- less than 0.1%
Original publication
Overdiagnosis of Papillary Thyroid Cancer. JAMA Netw Open. Published 2 February 2026. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →