Metabolic Risk–Attributable Cardiovascular Disease Burden in Adolescents and Young Adults, 1990–2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study
Authors' conclusion
The AYAs face a growing absolute burden of CVD-MRFs, driven notably by high BMI and FPG. Urgent, targeted prevention strategies are essential, particularly for males, young adults aged 20 to 24 years, and populations in middle and low-middle SDI regions.
Study context
- Population
- Individuals aged 15 to 39 years (and young adults (AYAs)), global, 1990–2021, stratified by age, sex, region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI)
- Outcome
- Mortality and DALYs caused by CVD attributable to metabolic risk factors (CVD-MRFs)
- Follow-up
- 1990 to 2021
Methodological detailsjoinpoint regression, Bayesian age-period-cohort projection to 2050
- Joinpoint regression
- Bayesian age-period-cohort projection to 2050
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
CVD-MRF burden among AYAs · 2021
Deaths caused by CVD-MRFs globally
213 000
Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) caused by CVD-MRFs globally
12.9 million
Increase in absolute deaths since 1990
29.1%
Increase in absolute DALYs since 1990
30.4%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Burden by SDI, sex and age
- Burden highest in middle and low-middle SDI regions
- Burden twice as high in males as in females
- 20 to 24-year age group the only subgroup with a rising mortality trend
Risk factors and conditions
- High body-mass index (BMI) and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) were the most rapidly growing metabolic risk factors (MRFs)
- High systolic BP and LDL-C remained the leading risks
- Ischemic heart disease was the predominant condition
Projected burden · 2050
- Persistent absolute burden through 2050
Original publication
Metabolic Risk–Attributable Cardiovascular Disease Burden in Adolescents and Young Adults, 1990–2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study. Endocr Pract. Published 29 January 2026. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →