Type 2 & other diabetes

Long‐term outcomes following alternative second‐line oral glucose‐lowering treatments: Results from the real‐world progression in type 2 diabetes mellitus United Kingdom ( RAPIDS ‐ UK ) model

Diabetes Obes MetabPublished Microsimulation modelling study

Authors' conclusion

For a general T2DM population, second-line treatment with SGLT2i rather than SU or DPP4i can reduce the probability of complications within 5 years.

Study context

Population
People with T2D starting second-line oral glucose-lowering treatment in routine practice, England
Comparison
Second-line SGLT2i vs sulphonylureas (SU) vs DPP-4i added to metformin
Outcome
Predicted probabilities of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), HF hospitalisation, diabetic eye disease, myocardial infarction (MI) and lower-extremity amputation
Follow-up
5 years after second-line treatment initiation
Methodological detailsRAPIDS microsimulation model, real-world treatment duration from Clinical Practice Research Datalink (England), treatment effectiveness from Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs)
  • RAPIDS microsimulation model
  • Real-world treatment duration from Clinical Practice Research Datalink (England)
  • Treatment effectiveness from RCTs

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Predicted probability of ESKD · 5 years
Reduction with SGLT2i
Mean difference, % (95% CI)
SGLT2ivs SU
−0.81(−0.89 to −0.73)
SGLT2ivs DPP4i
−0.87(−0.95 to −0.79)

Further findings

OutcomeDifference (%) (CI)
Predicted probability of HF hospitalisation · 5 yearsSGLT2ivs SUReduction with SGLT2i−0.90 (−1.01 to −0.80)
Predicted probability of HF hospitalisation · 5 yearsSGLT2ivs DPP4iReduction with SGLT2i−0.95 (−1.06 to −0.84)
Predicted probability of diabetic eye disease · 5 yearsSGLT2ivs SU−1.41 (−1.57 to −1.26)
Predicted probability of diabetic eye disease · 5 yearsSGLT2ivs DPP4i−0.44 (−0.59 to −0.29)

Predicted probability of lower-extremity amputation · 5 years

Predicted probabilities of lower-extremity amputation (LEA) similar across treatments

Effect modification by pre-existing CVD

Pre-existing CVD did not modify predicted probabilities of complications

Original publication

Long‐term outcomes following alternative second‐line oral glucose‐lowering treatments: Results from the real‐world progression in type 2 diabetes mellitus United Kingdom ( RAPIDS ‐ UK ) model. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 21 May 2025. doi:10.1111/dom.16447

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