Incidence trend of type 2 diabetes from 2012 to 2021 in Germany: an analysis of health claims data of 11 million statutorily insured people
An erratum to this article was published (Diabetologia, Aug 2025 ↗)
Authors' conclusion
For the first time, a 10-year incidence trend of type 2 diabetes is reported for Germany, showing a strong decline from 2012 to 2017, followed by a less pronounced decline from 2018 to 2021. The incidence trend of type 2 diabetes appears not to have been affected by the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite an overall increasing prevalence, the incidence is decreasing, potentially resulting from robust screening by family physicians, reducing the median age at diagnosis by 3 to 5 years. However, further investigation is needed to fully identify the reasons for the declining incidence trend. Continued incidence monitoring is necessary to identify the long-term trend and the potential effect of the pandemic on diagnoses of type 2 diabetes.
Study context
- Population
- Adults (≥20 years) with newly diagnosed T2D (ICD-10-GM E11 or E14), statutorily insured in Bavaria, Germany (≈11 million insurees, 85% of population), 2012–2021new T2D cases
- Participants
- 745,861 adults
- Comparison
- Pandemic period vs pre-pandemic period
- Womenn = 376,193
- Primary endpoint
- Time trend of T2D incidence (ASIR) and comparison of pandemic vs pre-pandemic incidence rates
- Follow-up
- 2012 to 2021
Methodological detailspopulation-based incidence trend study, age-standardised to European standard population, regression adjusted for time trends, seasonal effects and pandemic effects
- Population-based incidence trend study
- Age-standardised to European standard population
- Regression adjusted for time trends, seasonal effects and pandemic effects
Primary result
As reported in the abstract
- Men: Age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) 2012
- 1514 per 100,000 person-years
- Men: ASIR 2021
- 995 per 100,000 person-years
- Men: average annual reduction
- 4.6%
- Women: ASIR 2012
- 1238 per 100,000 person-years
- Women: ASIR 2021
- 796 per 100,000 person-years
- Women: average annual reduction
- 4.8%
Further findings
Sex difference in ASIR (higher in men than women)
- Yearly difference, 2012
- 18%
- Yearly difference, 2021
- 20%
- Male/female ratio stable over observation period
Median age at diagnosis · 2012 to 2021
- Men: decreased from 61 to 58 years
- Women: decreased from 66 to 61 years
ASIR in age groups above 50 years
- Downward trend also observed for age groups above 50 years
Original publication
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