Incidence and independent risk factors for heart failure in a population-based cohort of 19,892 individuals with newly diagnosed diabetes
Authors' conclusion
The HF incidence was high, with approximately 1 in 20 individuals developing HF within 5 years after diagnosis of diabetes other than type 1, highlighting a notably high risk of developing HF soon after diabetes diagnosis. Beyond conventional risk factors, higher HOMA2-IR and lower renal function, but not hyperglycaemia or autoantibodies, were independent risk factors for HF.
Study context
- Population
- All individuals with newly diagnosed diabetes from southern Sweden, 2008–2021 (ANDIS); median age 62.5 years (IQR 52.6–70.3); prevalent heart failure (HF) excluded819 with prevalent HF excluded
- Participants
- 19,892 individuals
- Outcome
- HF incidence (all-cause and non-ischaemic HF) and independent risk factors
- Follow-up
- Up to 14 years (median 5.0)
Methodological detailsregistry-linked
- Registry-linked
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Cumulative incidence of HF · up to 14 years (median 5.0)
Cumulative incidence of HF
4.8%
Cumulative incidence of MI
3.0%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | HR (95% CI) | P value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOMA2-IR (per 1 SD increase) and all-cause HF, SCORE2-Diabetes low-risk group | 1.89 (1.02–3.48) | P = 4.3 × 10-2 | |
| 0.20.5125Hazard ratio (log scale) |
HOMA2-IR (per 1 SD increase) and all-cause HF, SCORE2-Diabetes low-risk group
- Insulin resistance predicted all-cause HF independently of SCORE2-Diabetes; HR highest in the low-risk group, concordant results for non-ischaemic HF
Age at incident all-cause HF
- Median age among individuals who developed incident all-cause HF, years (IQR 62.7-76.7)
- 69.8
Original publication
Incidence and independent risk factors for heart failure in a population-based cohort of 19,892 individuals with newly diagnosed diabetes. Diabetologia. Published 3 August 2026. doi:10.
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