Genomic risk prediction for type 2 diabetes in Australian individuals aged 70 years and older
Authors' conclusion
The PGS significantly enhances T2D risk prediction in older adults, supporting its potential as a clinical tool for risk stratification.
Study context
- Population
- Australian participants aged ≥70 years from the ASPREE trial; median follow-up 4.6 years
- Participants
- 12,174 participants
- Exposure
- Polygenic score (PGS) added to clinical risk factors vs clinical risk factors alone
- Outcome
- Predictive utility of a PGS for baseline and incident T2D (AUC, C-index, NRI)
Methodological detailssecondary analysis of the ASPREE trial
- Secondary analysis of the ASPREE trial
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
T2D risk prediction
Net reclassification improvement (NRI), baseline T2D
0.63
CI 0.57–0.71
Clinical risk factors + PGS
NRI, incident T2D within 5 years
0.42
CI 0.30–0.51
Clinical risk factors + PGS
Clinical risk factors + PGS
- AUC
- 0.79
- C-index
- 0.71
Clinical risk factors
- AUC
- 0.70
- C-index
- 0.67
AUC
Clinical risk factors + PGS0.79
Clinical risk factors0.70
C-index
Clinical risk factors + PGS0.71
Clinical risk factors0.67
- PGS per SD, baseline T2D, OR
- 2.39 (95% CI 2.19-2.61)
- PGS per SD, incident T2D, HR
- 1.55 (1.40-1.71)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Prevalent T2D at baseline
- Prevalent T2D
- 1150 (9.4%)
Incident T2D · median follow-up
- Incident T2D
- 590 (4.8%)
Original publication
Genomic risk prediction for type 2 diabetes in Australian individuals aged 70 years and older. Diabetes Obes Metab. Published 2 July 2025. doi:10.
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