Future number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes in Germany until 2040: an analysis based on claims data
Authors' conclusion
For the first time in Germany, we provide estimates for the incidence, prevalence, and number of people with diagnosed type 1 diabetes for the whole German population between 2010 and 2040. The relative increase of the people with type 1 diabetes ranges from 1% to 32% in 2040 compared with 2010. The projected results are mainly influenced by temporal trends in the incidence. Ignoring these trends, that is, applying a constant prevalence to population projections, probably underestimates future chronic disease numbers.
Study context
- Population
- Insurees of the German statutory health insurance; projection for the whole German population with diagnosed T1D, 2010–2040
- Participants
- 65 million insurees
- Outcome
- Projected number of people with diagnosed T1D in Germany
- Follow-up
- 2040
Methodological detailsclaims data, illness-death model, scenario analysis, Age- and sex-specific incidence and prevalence of T1D in 2010 estimated from claims data, then projected to 2040 with the illness-death model
- Claims data
- Illness-death model
- Scenario analysis
- Age- and sex-specific incidence and prevalence of T1D in 2010 estimated from claims data, then projected to 2040 with the illness-death model
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Constant 2010 prevalence applied to official population projections
252 000
+1% vs 2010
Scenarios with different annual trends of incidence and mortality
between 292 000 (+18%) and 327 000 (+32%)
Original publication
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