Development and Validation of the Patient-Level Chinese Diabetes Outcome Model on Long-term Complications in Type 2 Diabetes: An Application of the Hong Kong Diabetes Register
Authors' conclusion
The CDOM, developed using comprehensive register data with long-term follow-up, is a robust tool for predicting long-term outcomes in Chinese patients with T2D. The model enables the identification of patient subgroups to augment study design and develop tailored novel treatment strategies, inform policy, and guide practice to improve cost-effectiveness of diabetes care.
Study context
- Population
- Chinese patients with T2D, Hong Kong
- Participants
- 21,453 vs 176,120
- Comparison
- Hong Kong Diabetes Register (HKDR) vs External validation
- HKDRn = 21,453
- External validationn = 176,120
- Outcome
- Prediction of incident and recurrent events (complications) in T2D by the Chinese Diabetes Outcomes Model (CDOM)
Methodological detailspatient-level simulation model, internal and external validation, prospective development cohort, retrospective territory-wide validation cohort
- Patient-level simulation model
- Internal and external validation
- Prospective development cohort
- Retrospective territory-wide validation cohort
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Prediction of first and recurrent events, after calibration
| Test or model | Value | C-statistic (internal validation) | C-statistic (external validation) |
|---|---|---|---|
| HKDR | 0.740-0.941 | 0.740-0.941 | |
| External validation | 0.758-0.932 | 0.758-0.932 |
Value
HKDR0.740-0.941
External validation0.758-0.932
C-statistic (internal validation)
HKDR0.740-0.941
External validation— not stated in the abstract
C-statistic (external validation)
HKDR— not stated in the abstract
External validation0.758-0.932
Further findings
Cancer prediction (C-statistic)
- C-statistic for cancer, internal validation
- 0.664
- C-statistic for cancer, external validation
- 0.661
Subgroup analysis (C-statistic after calibration)
- Consistent performance, internal validation
- C-statistic = 0.632-0.953
- Consistent performance, external validation
- C-statistic = 0.598-0.953
- After calibration
Original publication
Development and Validation of the Patient-Level Chinese Diabetes Outcome Model on Long-term Complications in Type 2 Diabetes: An Application of the Hong Kong Diabetes Register. Diabetes Care. Published 25 February 2025. doi:10.
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