Cost-Effectiveness of Biomarker-Associated Early Pancreatic Cancer Detection in New-Onset Diabetes
Authors' conclusion
In this economic evaluation of early PDAC detection among individuals with new-onset diabetes, the application of a primary T3cD biomarker followed by a secondary PDAC-specific test was more cost-effective than the sole use of either biomarker, although no strategy was cost-effective compared with standard of care. These findings can be used to inform biomarker-associated early detection strategies for PDAC.
Study context
- Population
- Simulated cohort of individuals aged ≥50 years with new-onset diabetes in the UKsimulated cohort
- Exposure
- 3 biomarker-based pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) screening strategies vs standard of care in new-onset diabetes
- Outcome
- Per-person ICER per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and net benefits, WTP threshold £30 000 (US $40 156) per QALY
- Follow-up
- 5-year period
Methodological detailsMarkov state-transition decision model, 5-year time horizon, 1-way and multiway sensitivity analyses, simulated cohort, UK NHS cost data (2021-2022), Analyses performed August 2024 to January 2025
- Markov state-transition decision model
- 5-year time horizon
- 1-way and multiway sensitivity analyses
- Simulated cohort
- UK NHS cost data (2021-2022)
- Analyses performed August 2024 to January 2025
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
ICER per QALY vs standard of care
Cancer-specific biomarker
£71 906
US $96 249
T3cD biomarker
£46 371
US $62 070
T3cD + cancer-specific
£34 223
US $45 809
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
- Scans performed to detect 1 PDAC case (sequential strategy, among 200 000 people with new-onset diabetes) — T3cD + cancer-specific
- 2.4 scans
Sensitivity analyses
- Biomarker specificity a critical determinant of cost-effectiveness
Original publication
Cost-Effectiveness of Biomarker-Associated Early Pancreatic Cancer Detection in New-Onset Diabetes. JAMA Netw Open. Published 1 October 2025. doi:10.
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